Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming

Abstract The Atlantic Niño is one of the most important patterns interannual tropical climate variability, but how change will influence this pattern not well known due to large model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art models robustly predict a weakening Niños in response global warming, mainly decoupling subsurface and surface temperature variations as upper equatorial Ocean warms. This predicted by (>80%) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 6 under highest emission scenarios. Our results indicate reduction variability end century 14%, much 24–48% when accounting for errors using simple emergent constraint analysis. Such potentially impact conditions skill seasonal predictions many regions.